By Salma El-Sakka
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has seen a significant rise in prediction market odds for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination following the party's heavy losses in the 2026 midterm elections, according to data from Polymarket.
Midterm fallout reshapes succession race
Republicans lost dozens of congressional seats, giving Democrats control of both the House and Senate. The defeat triggered internal blame directed at President Donald Trump, particularly over the unpopular Iran war and cost-of-living concerns. With Trump set to leave office in January 2029, the competition to succeed him has intensified.
Vance remains front-runner but faces war scrutiny
Vice President JD Vance holds a 34 percent chance on Polymarket, but his proximity to the administration's Iran policy complicates his position. Vance publicly admitted the war cost Republicans the election and has privately criticized Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, though he supported the strikes once launched.
Rubio holds steady at 17 percent
Secretary of State Marco Rubio stands at 17 percent. He has avoided direct association with the Iran conflict and his home state of Florida remained Republican in the midterms. Rubio has stated he will not run if Vance enters the race.
DeSantis gains momentum with post-midterm analysis
DeSantis, given a 13 percent chance after a 9-point surge, delivered a sharp critique of the Trump administration on Fox News, calling the results a "rebuke" and citing a "lack of productivity." His distance from the Iran war and his pandemic-era popularity bolster his prospects, despite a failed 2024 presidential bid.
Outsiders Carlson and Trump Jr. trail
Conservative broadcaster Tucker Carlson holds 3 percent, benefiting from his early opposition to the Iran war. Donald Trump Jr. sits at 2 percent, leveraging his MAGA appeal but lacking elected experience.
