By Sohaib Shams
Iran appears to be undertaking significant new construction near at least two major missile sites and repairing bases damaged by months of U.S. and Israeli air strikes, according to analysis of satellite imagery reviewed by BBC Verify.
New construction at key bases
Satellite images taken in November show evidence of digging and new buildings at the Garmdareh military base in Karaj, near Tehran, and at the Shahroud base in the north, analysts at the British intelligence company MAIAR said.
Widespread repairs across military sites
At least 12 other military sites, including missile complexes and air bases, display signs of repairs. New roofs have been built on destroyed buildings at the Kermanshah missile base near the Iraqi border, while damaged structures and debris have been cleared at the Parchin military complex east of the capital. Significant construction has been completed at the Taleghan 2 facility at Parchin, with damaged buildings levelled and an underground bunker repaired and reinforced with concrete.
Underground expansion suspected
Excavations near Shahroud could be related to missile production, former CIA analyst Jim Lamson said, noting that the nearby air base has been targeted repeatedly. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps is likely moving production facilities underground, a pattern MAIAR analysts have observed. Defence analyst Mark Mellett added that underground facilities make it harder for outside observers to assess operational status.
Karaj and Qom activity
At Karaj, satellite images reveal multiple vehicles and what appears to be a new portal for an underground facility, according to Sam Lair of the Foreign Policy Research Institute. Improvements have also been made to the nearby airbase. New construction and excavations have been identified outside tunnel entrances near Qom, close to the Fordo underground uranium enrichment complex, which has been bombed multiple times.
U.S. claims vs Iranian assertions
The developments follow repeated White House assurances that U.S.-Israeli attacks have depleted Iranian armed forces, with President Donald Trump dismissing them as a "complete and total mess." A Pentagon spokesperson previously said the U.S. had destroyed up to 90% of Iran's drone, ballistic missile, and naval industrial base. Iran, however, claims it retains large missile stockpiles, and state TV footage this week showed dozens of missiles at an underground facility entrance in southern Iran. In August, footage also showed Khordad surface-to-air missiles emerging from a tunnel near Bandar Abbas.
Analysts assess strategic intent
Military analyst Mark Cancian of the Center for Strategic and International Studies said the activity indicates Tehran is bracing for further U.S. and Israeli attacks and prioritizing military rebuilding over economic rehabilitation.
