By Karim Hammam
British Prime Minister Andy Burnham is preparing for an international summit later this month amid growing speculation that the UK could negotiate a freedom of movement agreement with the European Union. Burnham has said he wants an "honest discussion" about how Brexit has affected migration, though he denies planning to propose a full return to free movement at the upcoming talks.
Burnham's Comments and Brexit Assessment
Speaking last week, Burnham stated that the UK has lost immigration control in the decade since Brexit, citing the small boats crisis as a consequence of losing returns agreements with other countries. He also noted that migration patterns have shifted toward permanent settlement rather than the "revolving door" migration seen during EU membership. Burnham has previously said Brexit caused "more harm than good" and indicated a desire to revisit the UK's relationship with the bloc.
How Freedom of Movement Would Work
A return to free movement would end the current points-based immigration system for European nationals and restore reciprocal rights under European Single Market rules. For British citizens, it would remove the 90-day Schengen limit, eliminating the need for visas, employer sponsorship, and electronic permits to travel to Europe. The UK would likely not join the Schengen area, retaining its own border controls. EU citizens would again be allowed to move to the UK to seek work without meeting skilled-worker salary thresholds or paying visa fees. Stays longer than three months would still require employment, self-employment, study, or financial self-sufficiency with private health cover.
Migration Trends Since Brexit
Leaving the EU did not produce the drop in net migration promised in the 2016 referendum. Net migration surged to a record 944,000 in the year to March 2023, driven by non-EU arrivals. Subsequent visa rule changes in 2024 and 2025, including banning most dependants and raising salary floors to £38,700, reduced net migration to around 171,000. European net migration is now negative, with more EU nationals leaving than arriving. Researchers at Oxford University's Migration Observatory note the new system has opened substantial routes for international students and healthcare recruits from countries such as India and Nigeria.
Timeline and Political Hurdles
A full return to UK-EU freedom of movement is unlikely before the next decade. Burnham has committed to Labour's manifesto pledge not to revisit Brexit red lines until after the next general election, due by 2029 at the latest, and has said any such move would require a referendum. Rejoining the European Single Market would also be necessary under most models, entailing lengthy negotiations. However, smaller targeted mobility deals remain on the table, including a European Commission proposal for a two-way youth mobility scheme for people aged 18 to 30.
