By Islam El-Sakka
Democrats seized control of both the Senate and the House in the November 5 midterm elections, delivering a sweeping rebuke to President Donald Trump's administration and setting off an immediate scramble for the 2028 presidential nominations. Voters punished Republicans over the war in Iran and the cost of living, triggering bitter infighting within the GOP and a contested battle between the progressive and centrist wings of the Democratic Party.
Ossoff Emerges as Democratic Frontrunner
Senator Jon Ossoff of Georgia won re-election with 59 percent of the vote, cementing his status as a rising star. Prediction market Polymarket now gives the 39-year-old a 21 percent chance of winning the presidency and a 28 percent chance of securing the Democratic nomination, well ahead of other contenders. Ossoff has built his profile on unsparing criticism of Trump, whom he called a "lame duck president" on election night, and draws comparisons to Barack Obama for his oratory and cross-faction appeal.
Vance Distances from Trump Administration
Vice President JD Vance, the clear Republican frontrunner with a 34 percent chance of the nomination, has moved quickly to separate himself from the administration's decision to go to war in Iran. "The reason we lost is the war," Vance wrote on X, also citing voter desire to change the U.S. relationship with Israel. Axios reported he had privately warned the conflict was highly unpopular and could cost Republicans the election. His presidential odds on Polymarket fell from 25 percent in early September to 15 percent on election day before a slight post-election uptick.
Ocasio-Cortez Holds Progressive Ground
Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez comfortably won re-election in New York's 14th district with over 78 percent of the vote. Polymarket places her third overall for the presidency at 13 percent, just behind Vance, with a 14 percent chance of the Democratic nomination — a slight decline as markets shift toward Ossoff. She was the nomination frontrunner three months ago after a high-profile interview in which she refused to rule out a presidential run.
Republican Alternatives: Rubio, DeSantis
Secretary of State Marco Rubio holds a 9 percent presidential chance and a 20 percent nomination chance, trailing Vance by eight and 14 points respectively. He has largely avoided association with the Iran war and stayed off the midterm campaign trail. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, untainted by the administration's foreign policy, received a 5 percent presidential chance and a 13 percent nomination chance after a post-midterm surge. DeSantis called the results "a rebuke" to Trump and a Republican Congress defined by "a lack of productivity."
Newsom's Odds Decline After Term Limit
California Governor Gavin Newsom, once the Democratic nomination favorite peaking at 40 percent last November, now sits at 7 percent for the presidency. Analysts attribute his earlier strength to a default post-2024 position and a combative media style. Newsom termed out as governor after the midterms and said in September his children would decide whether he runs in 2028.
