By Salma El-Sakka
President Donald Trump is finishing the 2026 midterm cycle with a cross-country rally blitz that asks voters to pretend he is on the ballot, a deeply personal gamble as Republicans fight to keep control of Congress amid low presidential approval ratings.
Rally Blitz and Personal Appeal
Trump has staged events in reliably Republican states, often appearing before adoring crowds while a pre-speech video declares "God gave us Trump." He spends much of his speaking time airing past grievances rather than discussing the upcoming Election Day, a tactic aimed at energizing the base while avoiding backlash in swing districts.
Financial Muscle and Taxpayer-Funded Ads
Political groups linked to Trump have spent roughly $277 million since September 1, leaving his flagship super PAC, MAGA Inc., with about $416 million in reserves. The president also used taxpayer money to run television ads celebrating himself, including one nearly identical to a 2024 campaign spot.
Reshaping Washington and Party Control
Since returning to the White House, Trump has expanded executive power, remodeled the Oval Office with gold flourishes, demolished the East Wing for a ballroom, converted the Rose Garden into a Mar-a-Lago-style patio, and added a new helipad. He has dispatched National Guard troops to city streets, closed the Kennedy Center after failing to add his name, and pushed to revamp a historic public golf course.
Primary Interventions and Past Precedent
Trump's endorsement helped Ken Paxton defeat incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the Texas primary, making the general election against Democrat James Talarico more competitive. In North Carolina, his clash with Senator Thom Tillis prompted Tillis's retirement and the recruitment of Michael Whatley, leaving Republicans bracing for a potential loss to former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper. A similar rally-heavy strategy in 2018 failed to stop Democrats from retaking the House.
Voter Sentiment and Polling
An AP-NORC poll in late September found only 17% of U.S. adults approve of Trump's handling of the cost of living, with the Iran war keeping fuel prices high. A CNN/SSRS poll in mid-October showed about 40% of registered voters view their congressional vote as a message opposing Trump, while only 20% see it as support. Longtime Michigan pollster Richard Czuba said Trump's self-focus drives conservative voters who disapprove of him toward Democrats.
Base-Focused Strategy
Trump acknowledges catering to his base, telling the Washington Examiner he trusts his judgment. Supporters like Iowa retiree Cindy Downes cite his endorsement as their primary reason for voting Republican. Opponents like Wisconsin voter LuAnn Bird say opposing Trump motivates their support for Democrats. EMILY's List president Jessica Mackler argues Trump's appearances expose a disconnect with voters frustrated by policies that worsen their lives, creating opportunities in unexpected races.
