By Ahmed Abdelsalam
The 2026 Rugby League World Cup group stage has done little to dispel concerns about the sport's competitive imbalance, but a potential Tonga-Samoa final could provide a much-needed upset to the established order.
Group stage sets up familiar semi-finals
Australia and New Zealand advanced from Group A as expected and are widely tipped to meet in the final on 15 November. From the combined Group B-C, Tonga won all three matches to set up a semi-final against New Zealand, while Samoa will face Australia in a repeat of the 2022 final.
History of close encounters
Tonga beat New Zealand 25-14 in the 2022 Pacific Championships to reach their first elite tournament final. At the 2017 World Cup, Tonga stunned New Zealand in the group stage and narrowly lost to England 20-18 in the semi-finals. Samoa were surprise runners-up in 2022, stunning England 27-26 in golden-point extra time before losing to Australia. The nations met in the 2022 quarter-finals, with Samoa winning 20-18, and Tonga reversed that scoreline in their recent group match.
Pacific passion and world-class quality
Nine players from the recent Tonga-Samoa match participated in this year's State of Origin series, regarded as a pinnacle of world rugby league. Tonga half-back Isaiya Katoa described the intensity as "five or 10 levels above NRL." Both coaches, Samoa's Ben Gardiner and Tonga's Kristian Woolf, have NRL experience and have brought professional structures to their national teams.
Eligibility rules and diaspora connections
Since 2016, the International Rugby League's tier system has allowed players to represent both a tier-one nation (Australia, New Zealand, England) and a tier-two nation in a calendar year. This flexibility has enabled players of Pacific heritage to represent their ancestral homelands with strong emotional commitment.
Financial investment and calls for expansion
Australia's government has committed A$250 million over 10 years to the Pacific Rugby League Partnership, supporting development in Papua New Guinea, Tonga, Samoa and Fiji. Former England international Ryan Hall criticised the reduced 10-team format, arguing a World Cup should be a festival of the sport with more nations showcasing the game globally.
