By Salma El-Sakka
Democrat James Talarico has won a U.S. Senate seat in Texas, flipping the state blue for the first time since 1988, NBC News projects. The victory ends a three-decade Republican hold on the seat and comes despite a $168 million advertising blitz funded largely by Elon Musk and strong backing from former President Donald Trump for incumbent Attorney General Ken Paxton.
Historic upset in deep-red state
Talarico, a state lawmaker and seminarian, defeated Paxton in a race that drew national attention. The win marks the first Democratic Senate victory in Texas in 38 years and represents a significant rebuke of the MAGA movement in a state Trump carried three times. Talarico campaigned on a "top versus bottom instead of left versus right" message, focusing on wealth disparity and corruption while integrating Christian themes.
Campaign dynamics and key figures
Paxton, who was impeached by the Republican-controlled Texas House in 2023 before being acquitted by the state Senate, faced personal scandals including a public divorce filing by his wife, state Senator Angela Paxton. Despite Trump's endorsement and nine-figure super PAC donations from Musk, prominent Republicans — including members of the Bush family — publicly supported Talarico. The Democrat shattered fundraising records with small-dollar donors and avoided national surrogates to keep the race focused on Texas issues.
Voter turnout and demographic shifts
Early voting data showed record-breaking turnout across many counties, with a massive surge in Hispanic voters, including young people and those who had not voted in 2022 or 2024. Latino voters swung back toward Democrats after supporting Trump in Texas in 2024, providing a crucial edge for Talarico.
Final stretch and attacks
In the closing weeks, Talarico framed the contest as a David-versus-Goliath battle against Musk, accusing the billionaire of trying to buy a personal senator. Musk amplified past Talarico comments on transgender issues on X, while Trump held three October rallies in Texas to boost Paxton. Talarico briefly left the trail to recover from the flu, during which Republicans aired ads highlighting his remarks on gender and religion.
Aftermath and implications
The result gives Democrats control of a key Senate seat on Trump's watch and exposes a rift in the Texas GOP that persisted through Election Day. Talarico, when asked about Paxton, said: "Yes, Ken Paxton is a child of God. He is my brother in Christ. It doesn't mean there's not accountability, right? Love requires accountability."
