By Fatma Younis
Democrats have captured three of the four Florida congressional districts that Republicans redrew to their advantage earlier this year, with a narrow lead in the fourth, delivering a significant setback to GOP redistricting efforts in the 2026 midterm elections.
Democratic victories in gerrymandered districts
Incumbents Kathy Castor, Pia Dandiya, and Jared Moskowitz are projected to win the 14th, 22nd, and 25th districts respectively, while Democrat Darren Soto holds a lead in the 9th district. The four districts — the 9th, 14th, 22nd, and 25th — were redrawn by Governor Ron DeSantis and the Republican-controlled legislature to favor the GOP. Under the new maps, Donald Trump would have carried all but one by double digits in 2024, and the remaining district by roughly nine points.
National redistricting push falters
The Florida effort was part of a broader Republican strategy to redraw congressional boundaries in states including Texas, Alabama, Missouri, Tennessee, and North Carolina. Early results suggest some of the new districts in Texas and North Carolina may also be competitive for Democrats, undermining the party's nationwide map-drawing offensive.
Experts caution against overreading results
Harvard election law professor Nicholas Stephanopoulos warned that the Democratic wins reflect a strong national environment rather than a failure of gerrymandering itself. "Gerrymandering isn't yielding the gains GOP hoped ... IN A BLUE WAVE ENVIRONMENT," Stephanopoulos posted on X. "In a NEUTRAL environment, they'd be gaining around nine seats net. Even in this environment, their new maps will perform better than their old maps would have."
Strong night for Florida Democrats
The results capped a surprisingly strong performance for Democrats in a state Trump won easily in 2024 and where DeSantis prevailed by nearly 20 points in the last gubernatorial race. Incumbent Senator Ashley Moody narrowly defeated Democratic challenger Angie Nixon, while Republican Byron Donalds barely secured victory in a gubernatorial contest few expected to be close.
