By Basant El-Faramawy
With President Donald Trump not on the ballot, Tuesday's midterm elections are shaping up as a referendum on his first two years in office, according to an AP Voter Poll that shows nearly three-quarters of voters feel "angry" or "dissatisfied" with the country's direction. Roughly six in ten voters disapprove of Trump's handling of the presidency, and about 60% say elevated prices are more due to his policies than external factors. Government corruption and the cost of living rank as the top issues for voters, with roughly half calling them "crucial" to their congressional vote.
Voter sentiment and top issues
The poll indicates about 70% of voters want Congress to provide stronger checks and balances on the presidency. The economy and the state of democracy are cited as the most important issues facing the country, well above crime, healthcare, and immigration. More than 59 million Americans cast early ballots ahead of Election Day, signaling high engagement.
Battle for Congress
Democrats aim to capture majorities in both the House and Senate to curb Trump's authority after two years of minimal pushback from a Republican-led Congress. Republicans hold a slim 220-215 House majority, and strategists believe Democrats are on track to win the House, targeting over 60 districts. Key early races include Pennsylvania's 1st District, Florida's redrawn 22nd and 25th Districts, and Virginia's 2nd and 1st Districts.
Senate control at stake
Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate advantage. Democrats need a net gain of four seats, requiring victories in states Trump won, such as Ohio, Iowa, Kansas, Texas, and Alaska. Early East Coast results in North Carolina and Georgia could signal broader trends. Democrat Roy Cooper is favored to flip an open North Carolina seat, while Senator Jon Ossoff is expected to win reelection in Georgia.
Concerns over presidential interference
Watchdog groups warn Trump may leverage federal resources to disrupt the election. The administration hinted at federal intervention in Alaska after a judge rejected a Justice Department lawsuit seeking to block certification if Republican Senator Dan Sullivan loses. The Justice Department is sending about 1,000 staff to observe voting, while observers fear deployment of immigration agents or the National Guard to intimidate voters in Democratic precincts.
Democratic Party identity in flux
Progressive and moderate factions will parse results for advantage in the party's ideological tug-of-war. Michigan Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed is a key progressive test in a battleground state. Losses in Michigan and Minnesota could cost Democrats Senate control and trigger internal recriminations, while broad victories across ideologies would leave the party's identity unresolved ahead of the next presidential nominating contest.
Redistricting's uncertain impact
Trump's push for gerrymandering in Texas and reciprocal moves by Democratic states, combined with a Supreme Court decision weakening the Voting Rights Act, have shifted an estimated nine seats toward Republicans on paper. However, the strategy relies on Latino and nonwhite voters who backed Trump in 2024 maintaining that support, an outcome Tuesday's results will test.
