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By Salma El-Sakka
NBC News chief data analyst Steve Kornacki said Tuesday that systematic polling inaccuracies could improve Republican prospects in the upcoming midterm elections, despite current surveys favoring Democrats.
Polling misses in the Trump era
Kornacki noted that during the Trump era, polls have not only missed but missed badly, particularly undercounting Republican and pro-Trump voters in battleground states such as Iowa, Ohio, and other Midwest states.
Kansas flagged for potential discrepancies
He identified Kansas as one state to watch for possible polling discrepancies in the current cycle.
Non-response bias challenges pollsters
Pollsters are receiving significantly higher response rates from Democrats than Republicans, and while weighting models attempt to adjust for the imbalance, the disparity leaves a “wild card possibility” for the final results, Kornacki said.
New York Times reports similar findings
The New York Times reported that registered white Democrats were about 30 percent more likely to participate in Times/Siena polls than registered white Republicans, a gap slightly larger than in the 2020 final polls.
Baseline metrics still favor Democrats
A recent NBC News national poll showed Democrats leading Republicans 52 percent to 43 percent on the generic congressional ballot, and historical trends show the president’s party has gained seats in only two midterm elections since World War II.
