By Islam El-Sakka
ABC News will deploy a new polling operation called the Voter Poll for this year's midterm elections, replacing traditional exit polls with a broader methodology designed to capture how and why Americans voted. The Voter Poll, conducted by SSRS, will operate in all 45 states with Senate or gubernatorial races and include a national poll with a larger sample size than previous years.
How the Voter Poll Works
The poll contacts likely voters before Election Day using multiple methods: online, mailed postcards, text messages, email, and phone calls. Respondents who have not yet voted are recontacted from 5 p.m. local time the day before the election through poll closing time on Election Day to confirm whether they voted, their voting method, and final choices. Traditional exit polls at randomly selected precincts will also feed into the Voter Poll dataset. All data are combined and weighted to represent the full electorate regardless of when or how ballots were cast.
What Questions Are Asked
The questionnaire covers vote choice, demographics, candidate opinions, and views on key issues including the economy, foreign policy, healthcare, immigration, crime, and education. Questions use standard formats such as rating the national economy as excellent, good, not so good, or poor.
Accuracy and Quality Control
Like all surveys, the Voter Poll is subject to sampling and nonsampling error. Before reporting results or making projections, ABC News conducts quality checks comparing data to pre-election polls, state voting history, and expert statistical review. After polls close, results are weighted to the actual vote count to improve accuracy. Projections for races with large margins may rely on Voter Poll data, but most calls await actual vote returns.
When Results Will Be Reported
A strict embargo holds all early Voter Poll data until 5 p.m. ET on Election Day. Initial demographic and issue data will appear on ABCNews.com around 5:45 p.m. ET. Full crosstabs for each state will be posted after that state's polls close. ABC News will not project a winner before the last scheduled poll closing time in each state, and projections will incorporate actual vote data as warranted. Updates will continue throughout the evening across ABC News platforms.
