By Salma El-Sakka
Americans head to the polls Tuesday for the final day of midterm voting in high-stakes House and Senate races that will determine the balance of power in Congress, where Republicans currently control both chambers. A shift in control could curb President Donald Trump's executive influence and carry significant implications for domestic and foreign policy amid an unpopular war with Iran, climbing inflation, and record fuel prices.
Senate Battlegrounds
Thirty-five Senate seats are in play, but a handful of competitive races in battleground and traditionally Republican states will decide which party controls the upper chamber. Republicans hold 53 seats; Democrats have 45 plus two independents who caucus with them, giving them 47. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to flip the majority, while Republicans can lose up to three and retain control with Vice President JD Vance's tie-breaking vote.
In Michigan, former GOP Representative Mike Rogers faces former public health official Abdul El-Sayed in a bitter contest that has highlighted divisions over U.S. support for Israel. A late endorsement of Rogers by El-Sayed's Democratic primary opponent, Haley Stevens, roiled the race. In Texas, Attorney General Ken Paxton runs a close race against Democrat James Talarico, a former state representative and Presbyterian seminarian, with Paxton emphasizing culture-war attacks and Talarico focusing on the economy and Paxton's political scandals. Alaska features incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan against former Democratic Representative Mary Peltola in a ranked-choice voting system. Maine's longtime moderate Republican Senator Susan Collins defends her seat against Democrat Troy Jackson, a former Maine Senate president. Ohio pits incumbent Republican John Husted against former Senator Sherrod Brown, who lost his 2024 re-election bid, in a toss-up race. Kansas, not expected to be competitive after Trump's large 2024 margin, sees incumbent Republican Roger Marshall facing Democrat Adam Hamilton, senior pastor of the nation's largest United Methodist congregation. Polls also show close races in reliably Republican South Carolina, Nebraska, and Mississippi, where no Democrat has won a Senate seat since 1982.
House Control Hinges on Toss-Up Seats
All 435 House seats are on the ballot for the 120th Congress, but 14 toss-up races rated by ABC News will be crucial. Republicans, led by Speaker Mike Johnson, hold a slim 220-215 majority. Democrats need a net gain of at least three seats to reclaim control. Key battlegrounds span Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Montana, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, along with consequential races in districts redrawn by Republican legislatures in Alabama, Florida, Kentucky, and Virginia. Democrats aim to make history by electing at least 100 women to the House, a new record; currently 125 women serve, including 95 Democrats and 30 Republicans. In the 14 toss-up races, seven Democratic women face Republican opponents.
Gubernatorial Races Could Make History
Twenty-six women are major-party gubernatorial nominees, surpassing the 2022 record of 25. In Texas, Gina Hinojosa could become the first Latina governor. In New Mexico, former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland would be the first Native American woman governor. In Georgia, Keisha Lance Bottoms could become the state's first woman governor and the first Black woman to govern any state. In Ohio, Democratic nominee Amy Acton, who would be Ohio's first female governor, faces Republican Vivek Ramaswamy. Ramaswamy drew bipartisan backlash for an attack ad featuring Acton's estranged mother; Acton, a survivor of childhood sexual abuse, said her mother stood by her abuser.
Trump and Obama Make Final Appeals
In a final push, Trump and former President Barack Obama have made direct appeals to voters. Trump, appearing at rallies, promised a $5,000 "Trump Dividend" cash payment to adult Americans if Republicans keep control of Congress, defending the pledge against criticism that it amounts to a bribe. He urged supporters to vote Republican "up and down the line." Obama, rallying for Acton in Ohio on October 24, told voters: "They can't hear your boos. They hear your vote."
