By Islam El-Sakka
President Donald Trump faces a potentially disastrous midterm election on Tuesday, with Republicans at risk of losing House and Senate majorities, according to polling. The electorate typically punishes the president's party, and Trump's last midterm in 2018 saw Democrats retake the House while Republicans held the Senate.
2018 midterm results
In November 2018, Democrats needed a net gain of 23 seats to win the House and ultimately secured a 232-198 majority, launching impeachment proceedings in 2019 over Trump's pressure on Ukraine. Republicans retained a 53-47 Senate majority, acquitting Trump.
Immigration and the migrant caravan
The 2018 campaign was dominated by border security. Trump deployed 5,200 National Guard troops to the southern border to meet a migrant caravan from Honduras, and claimed without evidence that criminals and Middle Easterners were among them. Conservative media amplified the narrative to drive turnout.
Record women elected
The 2018 vote elected a record number of women, including 88 Democrats, 13 Republicans, and 10 independents. Among them was Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, now seen as a potential 2028 presidential candidate, along with fellow "Squad" members Rashida Tlaib, Ayanna Pressley, and Ilhan Omar.
Racial and rural divides
Exit polls showed a sharp racial divide: most White voters backed Republicans, while Black voters overwhelmingly supported Democrats. Trump's populist message resonated in rural areas, producing the highest midterm turnout since 1914.
2026 outlook
Eight years later, immigration is less potent for Trump after public backlash over ICE. He is not on the ballot but has campaigned heavily in Republican states, urging voters to treat the election as a referendum on his second term. With low approval ratings, a Democratic takeover could trigger investigations and possible impeachment of Trump or cabinet members like Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, while blocking his legislative agenda.
