By Islam El-Sakka
Speculation is growing that the United Kingdom could negotiate a freedom of movement agreement with the European Union as Prime Minister Andy Burnham prepares for an international summit later this month. Burnham has called for an "honest discussion" about Brexit's impact on migration, though he denies planning to propose a full return to free movement at the upcoming talks. The prime minister has previously stated that any return to pre-Brexit movement arrangements would require a national referendum.
Burnham's stance on Brexit and migration
Burnham, who has said Brexit caused "more harm than good," argued last week that the UK has lost immigration control since leaving the EU. He linked the small boats crisis to the loss of returns agreements with other countries and noted that post-Brexit migration has shifted toward permanent settlement rather than the "revolving door" pattern seen during EU membership. However, his commitment to Labour's manifesto pledges on Brexit red lines means substantive work on a freedom of movement deal would likely wait until after the next general election, scheduled for 2029 at the latest.
How freedom of movement would work
A restored freedom of movement arrangement would end the current points-based immigration system for European nationals, reinstating reciprocal rights under European Single Market rules. British citizens would regain the ability to live, work, and study across all 27 EU member states without the 90-day Schengen limit, visa requirements, or employer sponsorship. They would also recover access to reciprocal healthcare via the European Health Insurance Card system and cross-border state pension coordination. In return, EU citizens could move to the UK for work without meeting skilled-worker salary thresholds or paying visa fees. The arrangement would not grant indefinite settlement rights; stays beyond three months would require employment, self-employment, study, or financial self-sufficiency with private health coverage.
Brexit's impact on migration numbers
Leaving the EU did not produce the net migration reduction promised in the 2016 referendum. Official statistics show net migration peaked at 944,000 in the year to March 2023, driven by a surge in non-EU arrivals. Subsequent visa rule tightening in 2024 and 2025, including a ban on most dependants and a raised salary floor of £38,700, brought net migration down to around 171,000. Researchers at Oxford University's Migration Observatory note the changes have led to more workers residing permanently in the UK rather than engaging in seasonal EU migration. European net migration is now negative, with more EU nationals leaving Britain than arriving each year.
Timeline and political hurdles
A full return to UK-EU freedom of movement is unlikely before the next decade. Burnham has ruled out revisiting Labour's Brexit red lines before the next election and insists any such move would require a referendum. Rejoining the European Single Market would also be necessary under most models, entailing lengthy negotiations with EU officials. Meanwhile, smaller targeted mobility deals remain under discussion, including a European Commission proposal for a two-way youth mobility scheme for people aged 18 to 30.
