By Basant El-Faramawy
New analysis by the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) shows that skilled migrants and their adult dependants due to settle in the UK under current rules are expected to contribute £115 billion more to public finances than they cost over their lifetimes.
Home Secretary's reform plans
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is preparing controversial migration reforms that would double the qualifying period for settlement for most migrants from five to 10 years, and potentially triple it to 15 years for care workers. She is expected to announce her final decision to parliament next week following a public consultation that generated more than 200,000 responses.
IPPR highlights economic benefits
The IPPR analysis uses the same methodology as the government's £10 billion lifetime cost estimate for care workers, underscoring the fiscal benefits of skilled migration through tax contributions. The think tank welcomed indications that care workers could remain on the current five-year route and proposed a compromise for other cohorts already in the UK, such as allowing them to stay on a five-year path or introducing an interim status.
Call for fair compromise
Marley Morris, associate director for migration, trade and communities at IPPR, said public debate has focused heavily on migration costs but that skilled migrants are estimated to make a net contribution of billions. He urged ministers to honour the rules under which people arrived or offer a fair compromise providing a secure pathway to settlement and freedom to change jobs after five years.
Political tensions over retrospective application
Ministers face growing demands to curb high migration levels after record net migration under the previous Conservative administration. The prospect of applying the new restrictions retrospectively has triggered internal conflict, with ministers reportedly poised to scale back the plans, according to the BBC.
Cabinet divisions and Labour backlash
Housing Secretary Angela Rayner publicly attacked the prospect of backdating the reforms, and Labour backbenchers have threatened rebellion. Prime Minister Andy Burnham said he strongly supports the principle that indefinite leave to remain is a "right to be earned" but stopped short of committing to all of Mahmood's proposals.
