By Fatma Younis
Americans head to the polls on Tuesday to decide the trajectory of Donald Trump's final two years in office, with control of both chambers of Congress at stake. Republicans currently hold narrow majorities in the House and Senate, but the president's sagging approval rating has given Democrats a plausible path to flip both bodies.
Trump's Approval Rating Drags on Republicans
Trump began his second term with an approval rating just above 50%, but it quickly dropped into the 40s and fell below 40% after U.S. air strikes alongside Israel against Iran in late February. It now sits at about 37%, lower than his rating at the same point in his first term (43%) and below Joe Biden's 40% in 2022. Historically, the president's party loses an average of 27 House seats in midterms, and Trump's weak numbers help explain why Democrats are targeting Republican-held districts that have voted GOP consistently in recent cycles.
Battle for the House
Republicans hold 218 House seats — the bare minimum for a majority — plus one independent who votes with them. All 435 seats are up for election, but only 18 districts are rated as toss-ups by the Cook Political Report, with 14 currently held by Republicans and four by Democrats. Even without winning any toss-ups, Democrats would secure the House if they capture the 36 seats classified as likely or leaning Democratic.
Battle for the Senate
The GOP holds a slightly stronger position in the Senate with 53 seats to Democrats' 45 plus two independents who caucus with them. Thirty-five seats are contested in November, but only seven are considered toss-ups — six held by Republicans and one by Democrats. To reach a 51-seat majority, Democrats must defend their Michigan seat, where left-wing outsider Abdul El-Sayed faces Trump ally and former FBI agent Mike Rogers in a tight race, and pick up seats in states Trump won by double digits in 2024, including Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas, where former teacher James Talarico challenges state Attorney General Ken Paxton.
Key Issues: Inflation, Iran War, Healthcare
The cost of living remains the top voter concern. Trump touted gasoline prices below $2.30 a gallon in his State of the Union address, but the Iran war that began days later disrupted energy supplies and pushed prices to $4 a gallon. An August poll found 63% disapproved of Trump's handling of the conflict. Healthcare and immigration also rank high; Democrats emphasize insurance costs and access, while Trump highlights reduced border crossings as a success.
Financial Advantage and Advertising Blitz
Republicans hold a significant cash edge. In mid-October, the Republican National Committee and allied groups had about $320 million on hand, supplemented by over $160 million from Trump's MAGA Inc super PAC. Democrats held just under $230 million. More than $1 billion in political ads aired in September alone, with Republicans outspending Democrats by $200 million and dominating ad buys in nearly every toss-up Senate race.
Looking Ahead to 2028
Regardless of the midterm outcome, attention will quickly shift to the 2028 presidential election. Trump is constitutionally barred from a third term, so the focus will move from his unpopularity to what Democrats stand for, not merely what they oppose.
