By Sohaib Shams
Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, two long-serving nationalist leaders with close ties to Russia and China, have both been ousted from power within months of each other by popular movements that mobilized young, tech-savvy voters and deployed sophisticated election monitoring networks.
Parallel electoral victories
Orbán fell first in April, defeated by Péter Magyar's Tisza party in Hungary. Last Sunday, a student-led movement in Serbia, the Student List, won a landslide victory in parliamentary elections after less than two years of existence. Both elections saw high turnout — 79% in Hungary and 69% in Serbia — driven by young voters who used AI tools to analyze voting patterns, identify vulnerable polling stations, and mobilize tens of thousands of monitors to deter intimidation and fraud.
Cross-border cooperation
The Hungarian civic group DE sent 70 election monitors to Serbia's northern Vojvodina province to work alongside student activists. During the summer, they held workshops sharing techniques from the Hungarian election, including identifying "infected" polling districts where unusually high support for the governing party suggested voter intimidation or chain voting. On election day, mobile teams filmed groups of masked individuals near voting stations, combining with stationary monitors to create a strong deterrent.
Shared political and business ties
Vučić and Orbán, in power for 14 and 16 years respectively, had built overlapping business empires and cultivated friendships with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping. They jointly supported Bosnian Serb separatist leader Milorad Dodik and oversaw a Chinese-financed high-speed railway between Belgrade and Budapest. Their last meeting in November included discussions on Hungarian investment in Serbia's Nis oil refinery.
Election day confrontations
Vučić conceded defeat at 21:30 on Sunday, mirroring Orbán's concession on April 12. Speculation arose that Vučić spoke to Orbán twice that night, with Orbán allegedly persuading his Serbian ally not to use force. Vučić denies the pre-concession call but acknowledges a later conversation; Orbán declined to comment. Masked vigilantes appeared at polling stations in Belgrade and elsewhere but were blocked by monitors.
Numerical coincidences
The Student List secured 140 seats in Serbia's 250-seat parliament, exactly matching the 140 seats won by Magyar's Tisza party in Hungary's 199-seat legislature. Magyar was the only European leader to personally congratulate the Serbian students, and Student List head Ilija Srdanović said the Hungarian result proved their approach was right.
Potential legal consequences
Both former leaders may now face prosecution for corruption and abuse of power. Serbia's special organized crime prosecution (JTOK) and Hungary's new special prosecutors (NVVH) possess similar powers. Hungarian companies linked to Orbán were involved in the Novi Sad railway station project whose canopy collapse in November 2024 killed 16 people, catalyzing the Serbian student movement. Analysts say the regimes grew weaker the longer they stayed in power, and once society mobilized, their collapse became inevitable.
