By Ahmed Abdelsalam
Forecasters warn that a super El Niño combined with a potential disruption of the polar vortex could bring freezing temperatures and snow to the UK as early as November.
Polar Vortex Weakening Earlier Than Expected
NASA forecasts show the stratospheric polar vortex weakening rapidly, with wind speeds falling from 12.04 m/s (26.9 mph) on October 31 to 9.15 m/s (20.5 mph) on November 1 and 4.15 m/s (9.3 mph) on November 3. Experts now predict the vortex could weaken in November rather than in January 2027 as originally thought.
Sudden Stratospheric Warming Risks
The Met Office explains that a sudden stratospheric warming can reverse the vortex winds, causing the jet stream to “snake” and create a large blocking high‑pressure area over the North Atlantic and Scandinavia. This pattern typically brings a prolonged spell of dry, cold weather to northern Europe, including the UK, with snow possible on the boundary between cold and mild air masses, as occurred in early 2018.
El Niño’s Global Impact
The Met Office also warns that El Niño is associated with an increased risk of cold snaps. The phenomenon, which develops when sea‑surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific become significantly warmer than average, has already helped push global temperatures to the hottest summer on record and will continue to have far‑reaching implications for weather worldwide.
