By Ahmed Abdelsalam
The BBC licence fee is projected to rise above £200 a year within five years as millions of households stop paying, according to analysis by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).
Sharp decline in fee payers
The OBR estimates that 2.7 million people will cease paying the licence fee by 2031‑32, forcing the annual cost up from £180 to £202. The watchdog previously expected 21 million payers by 2031, but the new forecast reflects a continuing loss of roughly 500,000 fee payers each year.
Government considers ‘YouTube tax’
Ministers are examining plans to extend the licence fee to streaming services such as YouTube, Netflix, Amazon Prime, Apple TV and Disney+. The proposal, expected to be outlined in a white paper before Christmas, would require up to 4 million households to start paying again. Currently the fee covers only BBC iPlayer and live TV on any platform.
Political opposition
Both the Conservative Party and Reform UK have opposed the so‑called “YouTube tax”, arguing the BBC should adopt a subscription model instead.
BBC cost‑cutting drive
New director general Matt Brittin is overseeing a £500 million savings programme over two years, which is expected to cut around 2,000 jobs and lead to the closure of BBC Three, Radio 4 Plus and BBC Scotland. A BBC spokesperson said the current funding model is outdated and needs reform, while the government stressed the need for a sustainable and fair system.
