By Karim Hammam
Israeli election results have been finalized, revealing the composition of the next Knesset but leaving the prime minister's post undecided. Party leaders now face high-stakes negotiations to assemble a 61-seat majority in the 120-member parliament.
Neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor his main rival, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, secured a clear majority. Arab-led parties captured a historic 19 seats, positioning them as potential kingmakers. Any coalition will require difficult compromises that could alienate core voters; failure would trigger new elections early next year, with Netanyahu's government remaining as caretaker.
Eisenkot and Arab Parties
On paper, Eisenkot could form a 67-seat bloc with Arab parties, or rely on their support for a minority government. However, such an alliance carries political risk for Eisenkot and his Jewish allies. Arab citizens, comprising 20% of Israel's population, maintain close ties to Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza, leading many Jewish Israelis to view them with suspicion. Only once, in 2021, has an Arab party joined a coalition, which collapsed after 18 months. Netanyahu has already framed any such partnership as a betrayal of Israel's Jewish identity and a security threat, pressuring right-wing allies to reject it.
Unity Government
Netanyahu could instead pursue a unity government with Eisenkot and right-leaning parties, yielding a 67-seat majority that would sideline Arab parties, ultranationalists, and ultra-Orthodox factions. Such a coalition could address pressing issues like ultra-Orthodox military exemptions and economic challenges. Yet it would demand significant promise-breaking: Eisenkot and his allies have vowed not to serve with Netanyahu, blaming him for the Oct. 7, 2023 security failures, democratic erosion, and his ongoing corruption trial. A Netanyahu-led government is unlikely to approve an official inquiry into the Oct. 7 attack, a key opposition demand. Past opposition leaders who joined Netanyahu saw their support plummet, and he would need to discard far-right and ultra-Orthodox allies who stood by him through multiple crises.
Poaching Defectors
Netanyahu may also seek defectors from the opposition bloc, which spans the political spectrum. Former allies like Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman, both staunch supporters of West Bank settlement expansion, would find cooperation with Arab parties difficult. However, both have clashed personally with Netanyahu for years and pledged not to partner with him. They also oppose the military exemptions demanded by Netanyahu's ultra-Orthodox partners. Eisenkot has fewer options, as Netanyahu's Likud and its far-right and ultra-Orthodox allies have remained fiercely loyal.
New Elections
If no majority emerges, Israel could face another election early next year, with Netanyahu's government staying on as caretaker. This scenario would disadvantage his opponents, who entered this election with momentum but fell short. Tens of thousands of Israelis flew in from abroad to vote and may not do so again. Meanwhile, smaller right-wing parties that failed to cross the electoral threshold wasted pro-Netanyahu votes; they might not run again, or their supporters could shift to larger far-right parties, strengthening Netanyahu. A similar deadlock in 2019 led to five elections in three and a half years.
