By Salma El-Sakka
Hundreds of prisoners are being released early to ease overcrowding in England and Wales, raising concerns that rough sleeping could increase as winter approaches. Charities and probation staff warn that many leavers have nowhere to go, exposing what they call a "fatal flaw" in Andy Burnham's plan to end rough sleeping in England by Christmas.
Probation Staff Warn of Housing Crisis
Tania Bassett of Napo, the probation staff trade union, said most housing options were already full after October releases, with major concerns about the next tranche due on 10 November. She described staff feeling overwhelmed, with one member struggling to find housing for 10 people released on 1 October. Andy Keen-Downs, chief executive of the Prison Advice and Care Trust (Pact), said people are returning to prison because they missed probation appointments while sleeping on cardboard.
Burnham's Plan Faces 'Fatal Flaw'
Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, has pledged £874 million to tackle homelessness, but Keen-Downs said the lack of dedicated funding for post-prison support is a "fatal flaw." Enver Solomon, CEO of Nacro, noted that one prison accepted 16% of leavers would be homeless. Bassett urged the chancellor to ringfence money specifically for prison leavers to break the cycle of release and recall.
Rising Numbers of Rough Sleepers
Analysis by Pact shows prisoners released into rough sleeping rose 130% over three years, from 6,040 in 2022-23 to 14,360 in 2025-26. Rough sleeping now occurs in about one in seven releases, up from one in 10. The proportion recorded as "no fixed abode" increased from 11.3% to 15.9%. The government's presumption of electronic tagging for early releases cannot work if homelessness remains high, Bassett said.
Government and Council Responses
A Somerset council spokesperson said they have a statutory duty to assess and support those at risk of homelessness. The government said it is working with councils and charities, backed by record investment in probation, and aims to offer anyone sleeping rough a route off the streets by Christmas. It also highlighted training prisoners for work and partnering with employers to help leavers rebuild their lives.
