By Salma El-Sakka
Families in China are now supporting more elderly people than children for the first time, according to official data released last week.
Dependency ratio milestone
The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the dependency ratio for people aged 65 and above rose to 23% in 2025, surpassing the 22% ratio for children aged 14 and under. The figures show 223 million people aged 65 or older, accounting for nearly 16% of the population, compared with 213 million children.
Economic and social implications
Analysts say the milestone signals added strain on pension, healthcare and long-term care systems, while also creating opportunities in the "silver economy" catering to older consumers. Professor Stuart Gietel-Basten of the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology noted the shift could redirect public spending from families and schools toward pensions and healthcare. Sociologist Mu Zheng of the National University of Singapore warned it may limit economic growth and spending power.
Drivers of demographic shift
The ageing trend stems from rapid urbanisation and the one-child policy enforced from 1980 to 2015, which the government estimates prevented 400 million births. Despite easing family-size restrictions, birth rates have hit historic lows due to changing gender roles, rising living costs and higher education levels.
Government response
Beijing has made elderly support a pillar of its latest five-year economic blueprint. By the end of 2025, more than 53 million seniors were receiving allowances and subsidies. State media noted that many entering old age now have higher incomes and better health than previous generations.
Criticism of dependency metric
Some experts question the dependency ratio's scope. Gietel-Basten argued it risks misrepresenting older people as dependants and does not account for healthcare improvements that extend healthy lifespans.
