By Ahmed Abdelsalam
Arab parties could hold the balance of power in Israel's election as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his main rival, former army chief Gadi Eisenkot, both appear set to fall short of a parliamentary majority. With results still trickling in, Netanyahu's Likud party has emerged as the largest single faction, performing better than many polls predicted. His right-wing and ultra-Orthodox bloc is currently just shy of the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset, though analysts caution the early count is skewed toward areas with strong right-wing support.
High turnout and fragmented results
Turnout surpassed 77% as Israelis voted in what was widely seen as a make-or-break election. Exit polls showed Eisenkot's bloc neck and neck with Netanyahu's, while Arab-led parties equalled or improved on their previous record seat count. Arab citizens, who make up one-fifth of the population, turned out in unprecedented numbers, potentially positioning their parties as kingmakers.
Arab parties as potential kingmakers
Most Jewish opposition parties campaigned on a pledge not to cooperate with Arab-majority lists, citing a lack of shared values. However, if the "change bloc" cannot assemble a majority without them, Arab parties could become essential partners. Mansour Abbas, head of the Ra'am list, said he wants to join the next government after participating in the diverse coalition that briefly unseated Netanyahu in 2021-2022.
Leaders claim mandate
Both Netanyahu and Eisenkot addressed supporters overnight, each claiming a mandate. Netanyahu declared a "decisive majority" among the Jewish and Zionist public, while Eisenkot said the public had voted for change and against Netanyahu's continuation. The high number of uncounted absentee ballots, mostly from soldiers, means final results may not be clear for another day or two.
Deep divisions persist
The election has underscored deep societal divisions that have persisted through four turbulent years, including a corruption trial for Netanyahu, a controversial judicial overhaul plan, and the wars triggered by the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023. Pollster Tamar Hermann noted the relative weight of pro- and anti-Netanyahu camps remains roughly unchanged despite the upheaval.
Coalition negotiations begin
Intense political wrangling is already underway as parties seek to form a coalition. Veteran journalist Yaakov Katz described a process that could take weeks or months, with leaders offering cabinet posts and policy concessions to smaller factions. A key test is whether the opposition "change bloc" will break its taboo against relying on Arab parties; right-wing politician Avigdor Lieberman has already ruled out a minority government dependent on their support.
Path to government
Once final results are certified, President Isaac Herzog will consult party leaders and task the candidate deemed most likely to form a coalition. That candidate has up to six weeks to secure a majority. If no one succeeds, a new election will be held. In the interim, Netanyahu's government remains in a caretaker capacity without authority for major policy changes.
