By Ahmed Abdelsalam
The Old Farmer's Almanac has released its annual white Christmas outlook, predicting that at least 16 states from Washington to Maine could see more than an inch of snow on the ground on December 25.
States with highest probability
The list includes Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Maine, Massachusetts, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Utah, Vermont, Washington, and Wyoming. Northern states have the highest probability based on 1991-2020 climate data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, though historical odds for much of the country remain below 50 percent.
Methodology and accuracy claims
The Almanac says its predictions blend solar science, climatology, and meteorology, boasting an 80 percent accuracy rate. However, Illinois researchers have previously estimated its accuracy at just above 50 percent, and long-range forecasting remains uncertain.
Alignment with federal outlook
The outlook aligns broadly with the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center's December 2026-February 2027 forecast, which calls for above-normal to near-normal temperatures across most of the U.S., driven partly by climate change and a historic El Niño pattern. During the last strong El Niño Christmas in 2015, only 37 percent of the continental U.S. had snow cover.
Polar vortex adds uncertainty
Meteorologists are also monitoring unusual behavior in the polar vortex, which could shift cold air into the U.S. and alter weather patterns, according to a recent NOAA warning.
