By Sohaib Shams
South Africans voted in local elections on Wednesday amid widespread frustration over water outages, power cuts, and crumbling infrastructure, putting the ruling African National Congress on course for a bruising result.
ANC Support Declines
Polls project the ANC will receive less than a third of the vote, down from 45.6% in the 2021 municipal elections and 40.2% in the 2024 national elections. While still likely to be the largest party, vote fragmentation means it could lead many city coalitions while losing control of others.
Unstable Coalitions Hamper Services
Unstable coalitions have plagued many of South Africa’s 257 municipalities, with analysts citing high turnover as a major reason for poor service delivery. Johannesburg, home to 4.8 million people, has endured water shortages for over a week and has had 10 mayors in as many years. Neighboring Ekurhuleni has had three mayors since 2021, and Tshwane, which includes the capital Pretoria, has seen the mayoralty rotate among parties four times since 2020. In October, more than 800 people contracted a gastrointestinal illness from contaminated water in Bronkhorstspruit, east of Tshwane.
Gauteng Metros See Three-Way Contest
The centre-right Democratic Alliance leads polls in Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni, and Tshwane — all in Gauteng, the country’s most populous and economically vital province — though it has not polled above 40%. The ANC’s national leadership is reportedly open to a coalition with the DA in Gauteng, mirroring the national unity government, but local ANC leaders are said to oppose such a tie-up. Currently, the ANC governs in the province’s three metros with support from the Economic Freedom Fighters, the Patriotic Alliance, and ActionSA.
Johannesburg Campaign Focuses on Zille
In Johannesburg, the DA’s Helen Zille, 75, has run a high-profile campaign featuring stunts such as snorkelling in a pothole and kayaking on a flooded street. However, Zille remains viewed with suspicion by many black voters due to past comments seen as excusing colonialism, and critics point to soaring housing costs in DA-run Cape Town. Former Johannesburg DA mayor Herman Mashaba, now leading ActionSA, has ruled out working with Zille and called her a “racist,” an allegation she denies. The ANC, meanwhile, has three potential mayoral candidates amid factional infighting.
Zuma’s MK Party Challenges in Durban
In eThekwini metro, which includes Durban, former president Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) party is polling above 40%. The 84-year-old Zuma, who has denied numerous corruption allegations, is drawing votes from his former party, which won 42% in eThekwini in 2021 but now polls around 10%.
Cape Town Housing Concerns
The DA is expected to retain its majority in Cape Town, though likely with less than the 58% it secured in 2021, as unaffordable housing turns more voters against the party. The electoral commission has a week to announce final results, after which parties will have two weeks to form councils and elect mayors.
