By Salma El-Sakka
Scottish ministers are being urged to set a target of 30 gigawatts of onshore wind capacity by 2040, nearly tripling the current 10.7 GW, according to a report that highlights significant economic benefits.
Economic analysis and job projections
Research by Biggar Economics, commissioned by the Scottish Onshore Wind Developers Forum, found that reaching 30 GW by 2040 could generate £4.2 billion in gross value added and support an average of 6,100 additional jobs between 2034 and 2040.
Call for higher ambition
Rosie Vetter, chair of the forum, said the sector has been a major economic success but warned that low ambition after 2030 risks hindering one of the quickest and cheapest renewable technologies.
Project pipeline and UK policy constraints
The report notes a healthy pipeline of projects that could bring installed capacity to 20 GW by around 2032, but says there is no ambition beyond that point. The UK Government’s Clean Power 2030 action plan assumes an effective cap on Scottish onshore wind at 21.2 GW.
Government response and community benefits
Scottish energy minister Stephen Gethins has indicated that 20 GW by 2030 should be a milestone rather than an endpoint. The report estimates community benefit payments could reach £44 million annually by 2040, with business rate income doubling that to £88 million.
Industry and ministerial perspectives
Simon Cleary, energy transition director at Biggar Economics, said capping the sector after 2030 would put thousands of jobs at risk. Gethins added that onshore wind remains central to Scotland’s energy future, though deployment after 2030 will depend on UK Government decisions on grid connections and price support.
