By Karim Hammam
President Donald Trump is facing a potentially disastrous set of midterm election results as his approval ratings slide amid rising costs for gas, food, and energy. With 35 Senate seats up for re-election and Democrats needing a net gain of four seats, polling shows Democrats leading in most battleground states just weeks before the vote.
Inflation Surges Amid Iran Conflict
Consumer Price Index inflation has climbed sharply since the U.S. war on Iran began and the Strait of Hormuz was blockaded. The 12-month inflation rate fell from 3% in January 2025 to 2.4% in March 2025, then jumped to 4.2% by May 2026 before settling at 3.7% in September 2026.
Gas and Energy Prices Spike
Gas prices surged after the Iran war and Hormuz blockade. The 12-month increase peaked at 40.5% in May 2026, eased to the mid-twenties over summer, then rose again to 34.2% in September. U.S. drivers now spend an average $66.86 more per month on unleaded gasoline than in October 2025, while diesel drivers pay $139.32 more. Per-gallon prices are up $1.23 for gas and $2.83 for diesel. Overall energy costs, including electricity and home heating, peaked at a 23.5% annual increase in May and stood at 20.4% in September.
Food Costs Continue Rising
Food prices have risen steadily throughout Trump's second term. The 12-month increase for all food moved from 2.5% at inauguration to 3.2% in August 2025, peaking again at 3.2% in April 2026. Dining out has also become more expensive: the annual rate for "food away from home" rose from 3.4% in January 2025 to 4.1% in December 2025, and was 3.5% as of the latest data.
Trump's Approval Rating Plummets
A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted last week put Trump's overall approval at 32%. Registered voters favored Democrats over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot 47% to 36%, with the lead widening to 53% to 44% among likely voters. Pew Research Center data shows approval of Trump's handling of the economy at 21%, a new low for his second administration. Only 36% of Republicans say the economy is in good shape, down from 41% in July. Two-thirds (65%) believe Trump's economic policies have made things worse, while 19% say they have improved conditions. Looking ahead, 26% of Americans expect the economy to improve in a year, 34% expect no change, and 39% expect it to worsen.
Midterm Outlook for Republicans
The dismal polling arrives weeks before elections that will determine whether Republicans retain control of Congress. Several traditionally Republican states could flip to Democratic control in the Senate as voter discontent grows over the economic impact of the Iran war and aggressive tariff policies.
