By Basant El-Faramawy
Seasonal chocolate revenue in the United States fell $33.1 million over the nine weeks ending October 17 compared with the prior year, marking the steepest decline in at least three years, according to data from NIQ. The drop was driven by milk chocolate, while white chocolate sales were flat and dark chocolate posted modest gains.
Cost Pressures and Pricing Shifts
Cost-of-living pressures have led shoppers to allocate less money toward fall treats, with consumer confidence slipping toward historical lows ahead of midterm elections. An August study by Morning Consult and Hershey found about 66% of parents bought holiday sweets during the summer. Hershey CEO Kirk Tanner said the company needs consumers to "show up" in the final days before Halloween after the firm lowered its annual organic net sales growth target.
Cocoa futures have tumbled below $3,000 per metric ton from 2024 peaks near $12,000. Mondelez International CFO Amit Banati noted that lower cocoa costs are starting to filter through, though noticeable price reductions for consumers may take time. Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute sector manager David Branch said consumer price growth should decelerate markedly early next year as lower costs move through distribution networks. Producers are also reformulating products and trimming chocolate content to conserve cash.
Health Trends Reshape Purchases
Health-conscious preferences are transforming the sweet aisle, fueled by rising adoption of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs and the Trump administration's "Make America Healthy Again" initiative. NIQ's Chris Costagli said shoppers are making different choices around pack size, price, and product. Dollar sales of small packages rose 24%, while every larger package option declined. Circana's Sally Lyons Wyatt highlighted growth in no- or low-sugar candy, as well as trick-or-treat-size rice cakes, yogurt-coated snacks, bars, and ready-to-eat popcorn.
Industry Response and Outlook
Mondelez plans to acquire Undercover Snacks, a brand offering chocolate-drizzled quinoa crisps marketed as "healthy ingredients in disguise." Yogurt maker Chobani is promoting its seasonal Ube Sweet Cream Dairy Creamer with "no spooky ingredients." Verlinvest senior principal Lindsay Haut said consumers are supplementing with better-for-you options and downsizing to smaller treats, citing individually packaged Tiny Tony's from Tony's Chocolonely as an example. Plant-based protein company ALOHA is also targeting demand for nutrient-dense snacks.
