By Ahmed Abdelsalam
Gulf states must reconfigure their trillion-dollar defense architectures in light of the recent US-Iran war, according to a study by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). The report questions the region’s over-reliance on American support and expensive high-end weapons systems.
Iranian Attacks Cause Massive Damage
In the weeks before the April 8 ceasefire, 12 regional states, predominantly in the Gulf, faced 4,670 Iranian one-way attack drones and more than 1,400 ballistic missiles. Nearly half were directed at the United Arab Emirates. While most were intercepted, damage to energy infrastructure is estimated as high as $58 billion.
US Protection Found Wanting
The study finds that Gulf militaries are inadequately prepared for the new attritional air war. Despite massive investment in mainly US armaments, shortcomings include overwhelming reliance on US-supplied air and missile defenses, failure to achieve regional defense integration, a shortage of minesweeping capability, limited retaliatory options, and prohibitive costs of using expensive systems against cheap drones and missiles.
US Bases Seen as Liability
The report notes that US military bases and defense partnerships have provided Iran with a pretext for attacks against Gulf states. Public opinion in the Gulf has shifted from viewing the US as a security provider to seeing it as a strategic liability. Any reduction or withdrawal of US forces would be portrayed by Iran as a strategic success and used to embarrass Gulf states over their decades-long courtship of US protection.
Senator Murphy Questions Base Rebuilding
Democratic Senator Chris Murphy, a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said a live debate is underway in the US military about the value of rebuilding damaged Gulf bases. He argued that rebuilding bases that could be wiped out within hours of a conflict would be “criminally incompetent.” Murphy suggested a smaller US footprint, with the limiting principle being “what can we protect,” and proposed relocating bases in the eastern Mediterranean further from Iranian missiles.
