By Fatma Younis
With less than a week until the US midterm elections, more than 43 million Americans have already voted, according to data from the University of Florida Election Lab. The lab reports four to five million early votes cast each day, a rate significantly higher than in most previous midterm cycles.
Texas Leads Turnout Surge
Texas has seen the highest above-average turnout so far, says Professor Mike McDonald, who runs the Election Lab database. The state has already surpassed its 2022 early voting total by roughly 1.75 million voters, with more than 5.8 million ballots cast. Texas is a key battleground that could determine Senate control. Hispanic communities across the state are also turning out at much higher levels than usual.
Party Affiliation Trends
In states that require party registration, early voting by Democrats has increased compared to 2022, while Republican early voting numbers remain generally similar. Unaffiliated voters are also casting ballots in greater numbers. As of Thursday, 44% of early ballots came from Democrats, 31.2% from Republicans, and 24.7% from voters with no party affiliation, though this data covers only about half of states.
Racial Demographics in Key States
Three states — North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida — require voters to submit race when registering. Their data shows a rise in early votes from Hispanic and Black communities, while white voter turnout is on par with 2022 figures. McDonald notes this aligns with the Democratic coalition's stronger support among communities of colour and the Republican coalition's stronger support among white voters.
Border Counties Show Hispanic Voting Surge
Texas does not collect party or race data, but Election Lab analysis reveals a surge in early voting in several border counties that are more than 90% Hispanic. McDonald says some of these counties are on track to exceed their total 2022 turnout during the early voting period alone.
Shift to In-Person Early Voting
Early voting has expanded since the Covid pandemic, with more states offering both in-person and mail options. In 2020, over two-thirds of all ballots were cast early, half of those by mail. McDonald observes that voters increasingly prefer to vote in person even when voting early, and they are returning ballots earlier than in past cycles. He suggests this may reflect concerns about postal voting reliability or potential Postal Service interference, though no data confirms the cause. Postal ballots are more likely to be disqualified due to errors. Early voting will taper off as states begin cutting off the option in the days before Election Day on Tuesday, 3 November.
