By Sohaib Shams
Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham has said he wants to reduce the UK welfare bill "as soon as we possibly can" but stopped short of guaranteeing cuts before the next general election, which must be held by August 2029.
Welfare spending forecasts
The Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts welfare spending will rise from £353bn this year to £431bn in 2031/32. Of the 2031/32 total, £209.8bn is earmarked for pensioners, £110.7bn for universal credit and legacy equivalents, and £69.6bn for disability benefits such as personal independence payments.
Treasury disputes timeline
Chancellor John Healey told the BBC's Today programme that "there will be a reduction in the benefits bill, we'll do that in a Labour way." However, Treasury sources disputed that this constituted a promise to cut the bill before the next election. Downing Street later said it was "not setting an arbitrary target or timetable" and would not clarify whether the ambition meant reducing spending below current levels or merely slowing the projected growth rate.
Reviews to shape reform
Further details are expected after two major reports are published in November. A review of disability benefits is co-chaired by Labour minister Sir Stephen Timms, while a review of young people not in education, employment or training (NEET) is led by former minister Alan Milburn. Both reviews were announced by former Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer after his attempt to restrict eligibility for some health-related benefits triggered a Labour MP revolt and a climbdown in June 2025.
Market reaction and Conservative criticism
Former Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane said a credible plan to restrain the benefits bill would "play spectacularly well" with financial markets and deliver a "huge bonus." Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch accused Labour of being "addicted to welfare" and said the Budget had harmed economic and national security. The government has already pledged to reform the state pension triple lock from 2030, with more welfare proposals expected in the coming months.
