By Salma El-Sakka
Israel faces political deadlock after Tuesday's general election, with neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot securing a 61-seat majority in the 120-seat Knesset. With about 85% of votes counted by Wednesday, both blocs fall short, and key parties have ruled out cooperation, raising the prospect of another election.
National Unity Government
One theoretical path is a grand coalition between Netanyahu's Likud and Eisenkot's centrist Yashar party. However, Eisenkot campaigned on removing Netanyahu, demanding his retirement. Netanyahu, meanwhile, praised his right-wing and ultra-Orthodox allies and called for a "strong right-wing government." A regional military escalation, such as potential strikes on Iranian targets discussed with the U.S., could pressure both leaders to form an emergency administration.
Opposition Alliance with Arab Parties
The opposition's only numerical path to a majority would require support from Arab-majority factions, which surged to a projected 19 seats combined. The United Arab List (Ra'am) may win seven seats, and the Joint List 12. Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas has signaled openness to joining an opposition coalition, while the Joint List may offer outside support. Yet Eisenkot and most Jewish opposition figures have ruled out relying on Arab parties, with only Democrats leader Yair Golan advocating cooperation, though policy gaps over Gaza and the West Bank remain obstacles.
Right-Wing Defections to Netanyahu
Netanyahu could try to persuade hawkish opposition figures like former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Lieberman to join his coalition. Both share conservative security views but campaigned on ousting Netanyahu and demand ultra-Orthodox conscription, a red line for Netanyahu's ultra-Orthodox partners Shas and United Torah Judaism. Even if they joined, early seat counts suggest the bloc would still fall short of 61.
Snap Election as Default
If coalition talks fail within legal deadlines, parliament would be dissolved and new elections called. Netanyahu would remain interim prime minister. Analysts note Likud strategists may see advantages in a rerun, arguing high Arab turnout might not be sustained if it yields no influence, while small right-wing parties that missed the 3.25% threshold could consolidate. Israel held five elections between 2019 and 2022 over similar arithmetic, a pattern that could repeat if leaders maintain their red lines.
