By Salma El-Sakka
An ABC News analysis of early voting data shows Democrats are drawing stronger turnout from less-habitual voters in the key midterm battlegrounds of Texas and Georgia, a shift from the 2022 cycle that could influence closely watched Senate and gubernatorial races.
Texas shows 14-point swing toward Democrats
More than 5 million Texans had cast early ballots as of Wednesday, representing over 20% of registered voters. According to the analysis based on L2 voter records, 51% of early voters are modeled as likely Democratic supporters versus 45% modeled as likely Republican supporters — a 14-percentage-point swing from 2022, when Republicans led by about 8 points at the close of early voting. Donald Trump won Texas by 14 points in 2024.
Habitual voters — those who participated in the last four federal elections — account for 60% of the early vote so far, up from 47% in 2024 and 44% in 2022. However, among voters who did not cast ballots in any of the last four federal elections but have voted early this year, 64% are modeled as likely Democratic voters and 21% as likely Republican voters, compared with a 50%-39% split in 2022.
Georgia early vote also favors Democrats
In Georgia, more than 2.1 million early ballots had been cast as of Wednesday morning. The analysis shows 54% of early voters are modeled as likely Democratic and 38% as likely Republican. Habitual voters make up 67% of the early vote, up from 55% at a similar point in 2022.
Among Georgians who skipped the last four federal elections but voted early this cycle, 52% are modeled Democratic and 12% Republican, roughly steady with the 51%-27% split in 2022. For those who voted in two of the last four elections, the Democratic share stands at 56% versus 24% Republican, compared with 54%-35% in 2022.
High-stakes races and final push
Both states feature competitive statewide contests. Texas Democrats aim to break a 30-year losing streak in statewide races, with State Rep. James Talarico running for Senate and the governorship also on the ballot. Former President Trump held two rallies in Texas on Tuesday to mobilize Republican base voters. In Georgia, Republican Rep. Mike Collins challenges incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff, while former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms faces Republican businessman Rick Jackson for governor. Early voting ends Friday in both states.
Methodology notes
The analysis relies on L2 modeling to estimate partisan lean, as neither Texas nor Georgia registers voters by party. The data does not reveal actual ballot choices and cannot predict Election Day turnout. More than 39 million Americans had voted early nationwide as of Wednesday afternoon, according to the University of Florida Election Lab.
