By Basant El-Faramawy
Israel faces a political impasse after Tuesday's general election, with neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot securing a 61-seat majority in the 120-seat Knesset. With about 85% of votes counted by Wednesday afternoon, both blocs fall short of the threshold needed to form a government.
National unity government
A grand coalition between Netanyahu's Likud and Eisenkot's centrist Yashar party is theoretically possible, but Eisenkot campaigned on ousting Netanyahu and demanded his retirement. Netanyahu, meanwhile, praised his right-wing and ultra-Orthodox allies and called for a strong right-wing government. Foreign policy developments, such as reported discussions with the U.S. on strikes against Iran, could pressure both leaders to form an emergency administration.
Opposition alliance with Arab parties
The opposition's only numerical path to 61 seats would require support from Arab-majority factions, which are projected to win a combined 19 seats. Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas has signaled openness to joining an opposition coalition, while the Joint List may offer outside support. However, Eisenkot and most Jewish opposition figures have ruled out relying on Arab parties, with only Democrats leader Yair Golan publicly advocating cooperation, though policy gaps over Gaza and the West Bank remain.
Right-wing defections to Netanyahu
Netanyahu could try to persuade hawkish opposition figures like former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Lieberman to join his coalition. Both share conservative security views but campaigned on removing Netanyahu and demand ultra-Orthodox conscription, a red line for Netanyahu's ultra-Orthodox partners Shas and United Torah Judaism. Even if they joined, early seat counts suggest the bloc would still fall short of a majority.
Snap election
If coalition talks fail within legal deadlines, parliament would be dissolved and new elections called. Netanyahu would remain interim prime minister. Analysts note Likud strategists may see advantages in a rerun, as record Arab turnout might not be sustained and smaller right-wing parties that missed the 3.25% threshold could consolidate. Israel held five elections between 2019 and 2022 over similar deadlock, a pattern that could repeat.
