By Basant El-Faramawy
At least 300,000 people in parts of the Himalayas now live in the path of potential disasters due to a surge in construction in high-risk zones, a new study suggests.
Rapid development in flood-prone areas
Researchers found built-up land in high-risk zones in northern Nepal, south-eastern Tibet, and India's Uttarakhand grew 45% between 2016 and 2023. In areas threatened by glacial lake flooding, development rose 78%. The peer-reviewed study in Scientific Reports analyzed areas up to 50km downstream from Himalayan rivers and around 1,360 glacial lakes.
Tourism and infrastructure drive growth
Significant expansion includes tourism facilities, infrastructure, and real estate. Pokhara, a major tourism hub, has grown significantly. Mayor Dhana Raj Acharya notes many old buildings are just 5 meters from river banks despite new rules. In the Annapurna trekking region, settlements along river banks have increased, some hit by recent floods. Local business owners report fear and reduced occupancy.
Hydropower and haphazard planning
Construction of hydropower plants has risen along the Bhotekoshi and Trishuli rivers. Lead author C Scott Watson warns development decisions today will shape disaster risk for decades. The study categorized buildings within 50 vertical meters of rivers or glacial lakes, but August floods saw river levels rise 70 meters, hitting buildings farther back.
Climate change amplifies hazards
Warming in the Himalayas at twice the global rate accelerates glacier melt, destabilizing slopes and expanding glacial lakes until they burst. Nepal has documented around 30 glacial lake outburst floods since 1940. Rain at high altitudes replaces snow, causing slope failures. Prime Minister Balendra Shah told the UN General Assembly Nepal pays a "colossal price" for a crisis it did not create.
Regulatory gaps and future measures
Experts say building regulations are poorly enforced. Urban planning expert Prof Surya Raj Acharya calls for stricter rules in the fragile ecosystem. Nepal's disaster agency plans to ban settlements within 15 meters of riverbanks in the Rasuwa-Bhotekoshi corridor. In Uttarakhand, activist Anoop Nautiyal says zoning rules are ignored, though new floodplain zoning rules were approved in October. Basanta Raj Adhikari suggests insurance grading could incentivize safer construction.
