By Ahmed Abdelsalam
Israelis faced political uncertainty Wednesday after no clear winner emerged from a high-turnout election, the first since Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023 attack. Initial results show a deeply divided electorate, leaving the path to forming a government fraught for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his main opponent, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, with another round of elections not ruled out.
Netanyahu Down but Not Out
Netanyahu's religious and ultranationalist coalition fell short of a parliamentary majority of 61 seats, down from a peak of 68 in the previous parliament. His Likud party dropped from 32 seats to around 27, reflecting disillusionment with his nearly 17-year rule, anger over his handling of the Oct. 7 attacks, and his support for ultra-Orthodox draft exemptions. Yet Likud remains the largest party, positioning Netanyahu to be tasked first with forming a government. He would need support from at least one opposition party or defectors, though most have vowed not to partner with him. Netanyahu may offer concessions or argue that a broad government under his leadership is preferable to one relying on Arab-led parties or new elections. He can claim a victory of sorts by retaining significant support despite the deadliest security breakdown in Israel's history on his watch. "Politically, he is a magician," said Tamar Hermann, senior research fellow at the Israel Democracy Institute.
Opposition Faces Uphill Battle
Parties opposed to Netanyahu collectively won a parliamentary majority, but they include Arab-led factions long sidelined in Israeli politics. Some Jewish-led parties have refused to partner with them. "In the face of a politics of supremacy, racism and exclusion, we are offering a totally different alternative," said Yousef Jabareen, head of the Arab Joint List. Only one Arab party has ever joined a governing coalition, in 2021, and that government lasted about 18 months. Distrust is far higher after Oct. 7 and the ensuing wars. Netanyahu is likely to exploit that by casting any Arab partnership as illegitimate. Without Arab parties, Eisenkot and his Jewish allies have no clear path to a coalition, and another election could further weaken them. Tens of thousands of Israelis who flew in for this vote may not return, leaving Netanyahu as caretaker prime minister with a platform to attack opponents.
Arab Parties' Success Complicates Alliances
Arab-led parties represent Palestinians with Israeli citizenship, about 20% of the population. Surging Arab turnout, driven partly by disgust at Netanyahu's far-right allies, may deliver a historic haul of around 19 seats in the 120-member Knesset. That would give them significant leverage in any partnership with Eisenkot — potentially making such an alliance less likely. The opposition might also have to rely on hard-line Arab factions even more widely rejected by Jewish Israelis. "With these numbers — there are too many Arabs to lean on, so to speak," said Aviv Bushinsky, a political commentator and former Netanyahu adviser. "Israeli society is not ready for it, not before Oct. 7 and certainly not after it."
Results Highlight Deep Divisions
The election was an inflection point after three years of war but underscored the same divisions that have roiled Israel for decades. Netanyahu's coalition, comprising ultranationalist and ultra-Orthodox parties, pushed to strengthen Israel's Jewish character, expand West Bank settlements, maintain draft exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jews, and overhaul the judiciary. Eisenkot's camp promoted a vision where Israel's Jewish character coexists with liberal democratic ideals, promising accountability for Oct. 7 failures, judicial independence, ending draft exemptions, and repairing Israel's international standing damaged by the Gaza war and settler violence. The stalemated results suggest Israel's divisions are deeper than ever.
