By Islam El-Sakka
Israel faces political deadlock after Tuesday's election, with 85% of votes counted. Neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition nor challenger Gadi Eisenkot's bloc is projected to win a majority, meaning any government would likely require breaking campaign promises or trigger new elections.
National unity government led by Netanyahu
Netanyahu could persuade Eisenkot to join a unity government, but Eisenkot campaigned on ousting Netanyahu, recently calling for his retirement and denouncing a "culture of lies." Exit polls initially showed Eisenkot ahead but were revised in Netanyahu's favor. Netanyahu thanked his "loyal partners" and called for a "strong right-wing government," signaling he may keep his far-right and ultra-Orthodox allies. A renewed conflict with Iran could pressure leaders to set aside differences.
Eisenkot-led coalition with Arab parties
An opposition coalition with Arab parties would be a seismic shift. Arab parties are projected to win a record 19 seats, driven by unprecedented turnout among Israel's Arab citizens. The United Arab List says it would join a government, while the Joint List would support from outside. However, nearly all Jewish parties in Eisenkot's bloc rule out partnering with Arab parties; only Yair Golan of The Democrats advocates this path. Such a coalition would be fragile on issues like Gaza and the West Bank.
Netanyahu-led majority with right-wing defectors
Netanyahu could recruit right-wing parties from Eisenkot's bloc, notably Naftali Bennett of the Beyachad alliance and Avigdor Lieberman of Yisrael Beiteinu. Both are hardline on security but campaigned to oust Netanyahu and extend military conscription to the ultra-Orthodox, clashing with Netanyahu's ultra-Orthodox partners. Replacing those parties may not yield enough seats for a majority.
New elections
If negotiations fail, new elections become the default. Netanyahu would remain caretaker prime minister. Analysts suggest the high Arab turnout may not repeat, especially if their record representation yields no change, while right-wing voters could mobilize further. The estimated 70,000 Israelis who flew home to vote, largely against Netanyahu, may not do so again. Right-wing parties that fell below the 3.25% threshold may drop out, boosting Likud. Israel held five elections between 2019 and 2022 amid similar deadlock.
